Bitcoin F&G: 75

Price: $70,000 or £54,000

To start this F&G log off, I want to first give a very brief summary of 2024 for those readers may not already be following Bitcoin.

On January 10th 2024, the SEC (Security & Exchanges Commission) in the US approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). This was a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s adoption and history, and it had an enormous impact on the market. It is widely believed by many that due to the launch of the ETFs, Bitcoin saw a new all time high before the halving, which is something that has never happened before.

However, there is a catch.

In this chart, you will see an area that has been circled. That circle corresponds to around the time that the ETF was launched. After a brief dip in price, most likely down to a ‘sell the news’ event, the price quickly took off and within the span of around 3 months, we reached a new all time high. What was important about this, however, was that we reached the new high before the halving (an aspect of Bitcoin that I will be elaborate in a future post).

Never before had Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving. And this got people excited. Many Bitcoin pundits were on TV being asked about this talking point and it naturally led to a lot of speculation.

This could explain why, after reaching that new all time high, we have had one of if not the longest periods of consolidation in Bitcoin’s history. You can see from the chart that it chops sideways for a rather long period of time, around 7 to 8 months and brings us to where we are today.

Now over the last week or so, Bitcoin came within pennies of a new all time high. Since then, it has dipped once more but is still relatively stable around this 70k range.

My best guess is that it is the current sentiment around the election that is the biggest factor for Bitcoin at the moment. The market favours a Trump win, as he is the friendliest candidate towards the Bitcoin/crypto issue, but recent polls and data coming out over MSM & X show that his lead might not be as strong as once thought. Shenanigans aside, nothing is ever certain, and that might explain why instead of blowing past the previous all time high, the price of Bitcoin is once more beginning to consolidate.

Now that I have very briefly summarised the ETF launch, the ATH (all time high) and consolidation, let me very quickly lay some of the most recent developments that are worth considering as you hold Bitcoin for the long run.

• Microsoft will be voting on whether they hold bitcoin on their balance sheet or not.
• Microstrategy announced their goal of raising $42 billion in capital over the next 3 years to buy and hold more bitcoin.
• Donald Trump & Cynthia Lummis announced the Bitcoin Reserve Bill in July of this year. It would see the US hold Bitcoin as an NSRA (National Strategic Reserve Asset).
• Blackrock now holds around 429,000 bitcoin. They also offer IBIT, the worlds largest Bitcoin ETF.
• BRICS – since the seizure of foreign assets by the US but also the UK, many countries across the world are now more determined in seeking an alternative to the US dollar.
• M2 Money supply – the broad money supply in the US increased reportedly

Moving forward, I will be posting every few days with an update on market sentiment.